For most of the last two years I've been telling condo buyers the same thing: slow down, the market's working for you, use the leverage. I still believe that. But something changed in the numbers this summer, and I'd be doing my clients a disservice if I didn't say it plainly — the window you've been enjoying is starting to close. Not slam shut. Narrow. And the buyers who understand the difference are the ones who are going to win over the next six months.
Here's what caught my eye. Miami-Dade existing condo inventory has now fallen for five straight months — the first stretch of consecutive declines since mid-2023. Listings dropped roughly 11.5% year over year, from about 13,046 to 11,550. Meanwhile sales are heating up: existing condo sales rose nearly 12% year over year in June, and total Miami-Dade home sales just posted their best June in three years, growing year over year for the tenth consecutive month. Read those two trends together and the story writes itself.
Still a Buyer's Market — But Watch the Direction
Let me be clear, because I never want to sell fear: this is still a buyer's market. Existing condos sit around 12.3 months of supply, and a balanced market is about six. You still have real negotiating room today, especially in oversupplied mid-tier buildings where units have been sitting. Nothing about that changed overnight.
What changed is the direction. For two years the arrow pointed one way — more inventory, more leverage, more room to negotiate. Now, for the first time in a while, that arrow has flipped. Supply is falling while demand is rising. When those two lines cross for five months running, the daylight between what sellers ask and what they accept starts to compress. It hasn't disappeared. It's shrinking. And shrinking leverage is exactly the kind of thing that's invisible until you look back and realize you missed the best of it.
Condo inventory has dropped five months in a row to 12.3 months of supply while sales rose for the tenth straight month. You still have leverage — but the trend is turning back toward sellers.
Why the Inventory Is Draining
Understanding the "why" is what separates a smart buyer from an anxious one. A few forces are pulling condo inventory down at the same time.
First, buyers finally showed up. The big wave of listings that hit after Florida's condo reserve-funding reforms and the hard insurance years — all those owners who didn't want to absorb higher assessments — has largely been absorbed. Disciplined buyers used the elevated supply exactly the way I've been coaching, and that soaked up the excess. Second, demand keeps arriving from outside. Corporate relocations into South Florida, out-of-state cash buyers, and relocation demand from higher-tax states haven't slowed — if anything they've kept a steady floor under the market. Third, sales momentum feeds on itself; ten straight months of year-over-year growth pulls listings off the board faster than sellers replace them.
Put it together and you get a market that's still statistically friendly to buyers but is quietly tightening underneath them. That's the setup that rewards moving with intention instead of waiting for a bottom that the data says may already be behind us.
How I'd Play It Right Now
Leverage you don't act on is just a story you tell later. Here's the playbook I'm running with clients this summer.
First, I still throw out the county average and pull the real numbers on your specific building — recent closed sales, how many units are active in it, and how long your target unit has been sitting. County-wide supply is falling, but a building with eight stale listings is a completely different negotiation than one with a single unit left. That's where the room still lives.
Second, I move faster on the right unit than I would have six months ago. When inventory was climbing, waiting cost you nothing. Now, waiting can cost you the exact leverage you're trying to use. If we find a well-priced unit in a financially healthy building with a motivated seller, I'd rather negotiate hard today than gamble that a better version shows up after supply tightens further. Third — and this never changes — I underwrite the full cost of ownership before we anchor on price, because the assessments, reserves, and insurance picture matter more than a few thousand dollars on the sticker.
| Where Leverage Still Lives Today | Where It's Thinning Fastest |
|---|---|
| Oversupplied mid-tier buildings | Scarcity-driven luxury towers |
| Units sitting 70+ days on market | Well-priced fresh listings |
| Buildings with many active listings | Buildings down to one or two units |
| Sellers facing assessments or carrying costs | Relocation-driven, high-demand pockets |
Don't Let the Clock Rush You Into a Bad Building
Now let me put my insurance hat on, because a narrowing window is exactly when buyers get careless. The temptation, once you feel the leverage shrinking, is to grab something before it's gone. Don't. The same pressures that built this inventory — assessments, reserve requirements, master-policy insurance costs — can still quietly wreck a purchase. A unit priced well under its building's average might be cheap because the association is underfunded and a special assessment is coming.
So even with the clock ticking, I make my clients see the building's financials, its reserve study, its current and pending assessments, and its master insurance coverage before we celebrate a price. Moving with urgency and moving carelessly are not the same thing. A genuinely good deal is a fair, negotiated price in a financially healthy building — closed while the leverage is still real. That's the sweet spot I'm aiming every client at right now, and being licensed in both real estate and insurance is exactly how I protect them on both ends of the same deal.
The leverage is still here, but it's narrowing. Move with intention on the right unit — and never sign before you've read the reserve study and master policy. Urgency is fine; carelessness is expensive.
How I'd Sum It Up
The condo side of Miami is still tilted toward prepared buyers, but the tilt is easing. Five straight months of falling inventory, supply down to 12.3 months, and sales climbing for the tenth month in a row — that's a market quietly rebalancing. It doesn't mean panic, and it doesn't mean overpay. It means the strongest hand condo buyers have held in years is still on the table, but it won't sit there forever. Pull the real numbers on your building, act with intention on the right unit, underwrite the full cost of ownership, and vet the building's financial health before you fall in love with a discount.
That's the whole philosophy I bring to every client: buy the home at the right number, protect the family inside it, and build something that lasts. The market handed condo buyers a strong hand — the smart ones are playing it now, while the leverage is still clearly theirs. Let's play yours right.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Miami still a buyer's market for condos in 2026?
Yes, but the edge is narrowing. Existing condo inventory sits around 12.3 months of supply — still firmly a buyer's market, since six months is balanced. The important shift is direction: condo inventory has fallen for five consecutive months and dropped about 11.5% year over year, from roughly 13,046 listings to 11,550, while existing condo sales rose nearly 12% and total home sales climbed for the tenth straight month. The leverage is still real today, but the trend is moving back toward sellers. Prepared buyers who act while supply is elevated get the room; those waiting for a deeper bottom may find it thinning out.
Why is Miami condo inventory falling?
Several things at once. Sales have accelerated — Miami-Dade just posted its best June in three years and total home sales have grown year over year for ten straight months, pulling listings off the market faster than new ones replace them. The wave of listings that followed the condo reserve-funding reforms and higher insurance costs has largely been absorbed by buyers who used the elevated supply to negotiate. And corporate relocations plus out-of-state demand keep a steady pool of cash and relocation buyers competing for well-priced units. The result is five straight months of declining inventory even in a market that's still statistically a buyer's market.
Should I buy a Miami condo now or wait for prices to fall more?
If you're prepared, buying into elevated-but-falling inventory usually beats waiting for a bottom that may not come. Today you still have around 12.3 months of supply and real negotiating room, especially in oversupplied mid-tier buildings. But inventory has fallen five months in a row, so the daylight between list and sale price could compress as supply tightens. The smart play isn't guessing the exact low — it's negotiating hard now in a financially healthy building, underwriting the assessments, reserves, and insurance before you close, and locking in leverage while it's clearly on the table.
Agu Ukaogo
South Florida Luxury Realtor & Wealth Protection Strategist. FL Real Estate License SL3588365 | Insurance NPN 22138920. One of the few advisors in Miami licensed in both real estate and insurance. HomeWithAgu.com · (954) 702-4688