For four straight years, the South Florida condo market has been the asset everyone loved to write off. Rising insurance, rising HOA fees, post-Surfside inspection requirements, headlines about owners listing units they couldn't afford to keep. I've sat across from buyers who told me flat out: "Agu, I'm not touching a condo."
This week, the forecast changed. MIAMI Realtors released their 2026–2027 housing outlook, and buried in it is the number I've been waiting for: condo and townhome sales are projected to rise 2.5% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 — the first increase after four consecutive years of decline. The market everyone gave up on is turning. And here's the part most people will miss: it's turning while prices are still soft.
I tell my clients all the time — you don't get a bell at the bottom. You get a forecast like this one, a window where the data has turned but the crowd hasn't shown up yet. Let me walk you through what I'm seeing.
The Numbers That Tell the Story
Look at that combination carefully. Sales turning positive. Million-dollar condo sales already up 23.4% year-to-date — the wealthy never stopped buying, they just got selective. Median prices dipping a fraction this year before turning positive in 2027. And inventory sitting around ten to twelve months of supply, which is firmly a buyer's market.
That mix — recovering demand, soft prices, deep inventory — is the early innings of a turnaround. By the time prices confirm it in 2027, the negotiating leverage you have today will be gone.
Why the Smart Money Is Already Moving
The luxury tier is the tell. When I see million-dollar condo sales running up more than 23% while the overall market is flat, that tells me the most sophisticated buyers — the ones with advisors, the ones who don't need a mortgage, the ones who've done this before — have already decided the bottom is in for quality buildings. They're not waiting for the headline to change. They're buying while sellers are still negotiable.
I had a client last month walk into a Brickell building where the seller had cut the price twice and was still offering a credit toward the first year of HOA dues. Two years ago that seller had multiple offers in a weekend. That's what ten months of inventory buys you: time, leverage, and a seller who returns your calls.
Sales recovering + prices still soft + a foot of inventory = the rare moment when you can buy quality without competing for it. These windows close quietly. Nobody announces them — you just notice one day that the credits stopped and the bidding came back.
Be Honest About the Headwinds
Now, I'm not going to sell you a fantasy — that's not how I work. Rates are sitting around 6.5% and climbed toward their 2026 highs this week, with inflation running hotter than anyone wants. Insurance premiums in Florida are still nearly double the national average, even with the recent rate relief. HOA fees in buildings catching up on reserves are real money. Anyone who tells you to buy any condo right now is doing you a disservice.
This is a turnaround for quality buildings — and a continued reckoning for the rest. The gap between a building with funded reserves and a clean milestone inspection versus one with a special assessment hanging over it is wider than I've ever seen it. The forecast says the tide is turning; it doesn't say every boat floats.
What I check before my clients write an offer
- The milestone inspection and reserve study. If the building hasn't done the work or funded the reserves, the discount isn't a discount — it's a down payment on a future assessment.
- The master insurance policy. I want to know what the building carries, what it costs, and what's been non-renewed. That premium flows straight into your HOA dues.
- Lender approvability. Some buildings can't get financed right now. That caps your resale pool to cash buyers and caps your exit price with it.
- The HOA budget trend. Not just this year's dues — the three-year direction. A building that already took its medicine is worth more than one still pretending.
Buy the Home. Protect the Family. Build the Legacy.
Here's where I put on my second hat, because I'm licensed on both sides of this conversation. A condo bought right in this window can be a legacy asset — but only if the purchase is protected. That means an HO-6 policy that actually covers your interior build-out and loss assessment exposure. Flood coverage where the building's master policy leaves gaps. Umbrella liability if you're renting it out. And life insurance sized so that if something happens to you, your family keeps the property instead of selling it into whatever market exists that year.
I've watched families buy brilliantly and lose it all the same, because the plan ended at the closing table. The transaction is the beginning of the work, not the end of it.
Four years of bad condo headlines trained everyone to look away — and that's exactly why the opportunity exists. The forecast turned this week. Prices haven't yet. If you've been waiting for the moment when the data supports buying but the crowd hasn't arrived, you're standing in it. Just buy the right building, and protect what you buy.
Want to See What This Window Looks Like in Real Listings?
I'll show you the buildings passing my checklist right now — reserves funded, inspections clean, sellers negotiable — and we'll build the protection plan around the purchase.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the South Florida condo market recovering in 2026?
Yes — the latest MIAMI Realtors 2026–2027 outlook projects condo and townhome sales to rise about 2.5% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, the first sales increase after four consecutive years of decline. Meanwhile, condo median prices are forecast to dip slightly (around -0.4%) in 2026 before turning positive in 2027. Sales recovering while prices are still soft is the classic early-recovery setup, and the million-dollar condo segment is already up over 23% year-to-date.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a condo in Miami?
For prepared buyers, conditions are unusually favorable: roughly 10–12 months of condo inventory gives buyers real negotiating leverage, sellers are offering price reductions and credits, and forecasts call for prices to stabilize and turn upward in 2027. The key is buying the right building — one with healthy reserves, a clean milestone inspection, and manageable insurance and HOA costs. Building quality matters more than timing the absolute bottom.
What should I check before buying a South Florida condo?
Review the building's structural milestone inspection and reserve study, the HOA budget and any planned special assessments, the master insurance policy, and the building's lender approval status. Then build your personal protection stack: HO-6 condo insurance, flood coverage where appropriate, umbrella liability, and life insurance sized so the home stays in your family no matter what. A condo purchase in Florida is a building decision and a wealth-protection decision, not just a unit decision.
Agu Ukaogo
South Florida Luxury Realtor & Wealth Protection Strategist. Licensed in both real estate and life insurance. Bridges real estate transactions with the financial protection that keeps homes in families. HomeWithAgu.com · (954) 702-4688