A buyer asked me last week, "Agu, if there are still twelve months of condos for sale, why does it feel like the good ones are disappearing?"
It's the right question, and the answer is the most useful thing I can tell anyone shopping Miami right now. Both things are true at once. The market is still deep, and it's getting thinner. The buyers who understand the difference are the ones who will get the better deal.
What the July Numbers Actually Say
According to MIAMI REALTORS data for July 2026, Miami-Dade condo sales rose about 11.4% year over year to 1,026 closings. The condo median price was roughly $400,000, down about 1.5% from a year earlier. Active condo inventory came in near 11,300 units, down almost 12%. And condos still carried about 12 months of supply, against roughly 4.8 months for single-family homes.
Read that again. Sales are up. Listings are down. Prices are flat. That is not a collapsing market, and it's not a hot one. It's a market that is slowly working through its excess, and that is exactly when the leverage starts to narrow. One brokerage summary of August data showed active condo-townhome inventory still falling, about 9% year over year, with days on market stretched out. Same story: slow clearing, not a rush.
Twelve months of supply is a market-wide average. Inside it, the best-run buildings with healthy reserves and clean financials are trading far faster than the average, while troubled buildings sit. The leverage is real, but it lives in specific buildings, not in the headline.
Why Falling Inventory Is a Buyer's Signal, Not a Warning
When I came up in sales, I learned that the best time to buy anything is when the seller is tired and the trend is turning. Supply shrinking while sellers are still anxious is that moment. Sellers who listed a year ago are still carrying dues and insurance. They remember every price cut. They are open to credits, closing flexibility, and sometimes real movement on price.
But sellers who can wait are now pulling listings instead of cutting again. That's why inventory falls. Each one that comes off removes a bit of your leverage. I walked through how to use that pressure while it exists in my Miami condo buyer's-market playbook, and the broader recovery picture is in my read on the South Florida condo market turnaround.
Where the Leverage Is Right Now
- Units that have sat. A listing past 90 days has a seller who has already done the math on carrying costs. Ask for the full price history before you write a number.
- Seller credits instead of price cuts. A $15,000 credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown often lands more easily than a $15,000 price reduction, and helps your monthly payment just as much.
- Buildings that finance. Warrantable, well-reserved buildings give you the strongest resale and the easiest lender path. I clear this before any offer, the same way I describe in my cash vs. financing guide.
- Timing flexibility. Offering a closing date that fits the seller's next move is worth real money to a tired seller.
What I Tell Clients Before They Move
First, pick the building before the unit. A beautiful unit in a building with thin reserves is a future special assessment with a view. Review the reserve study, the budget, and any pending litigation before you fall in love.
Second, know your all-in monthly number, not just the mortgage. HOA dues, insurance, and taxes decide whether a condo is a good buy. A cheap price on a high-dues building can cost you more over five years than a pricier unit with a leaner budget.
Third, keep your liquidity. This is where my work in wealth protection matters. I've seen buyers stretch every dollar into the down payment and then get blindsided by an assessment. Buy the home, protect the family, build the legacy. If your reserves can't absorb a bad year, you haven't protected anything.
Fourth, don't wait for a bottom you can't identify. Corporate and international demand keeps arriving, and I've been tracking it in how corporate relocations are driving South Florida demand. When inventory tightens and demand keeps showing up, prices don't need to rise much to take away the cushion you have today.
The Bottom Line
I'm not telling you to rush. I'm telling you to be ready. The buyers who win this phase of the cycle have their financing set, their building shortlist done, and their terms thought through before the right unit appears. The ones who wait for a headline telling them it's time are usually buying after the leverage is gone.
If you're weighing a Miami condo and want an honest read on which buildings actually have leverage right now, I'm ready to help you do it right. Call me at (305) 791-0812 or visit HomeWithAgu.com. Let's build something real.
Deal Alerts
Get South Florida Deal Alerts + Building Intel
New listings, price cuts, and the buildings I'd actually put a client in — sent before the crowd sees them. Plus my Condo Due Diligence Checklist — free, instant download.
Tell Me Your Budget. I'll Show You Where the Leverage Is.
Send me your price range and target areas and I'll pull the buildings where sellers are negotiating right now.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many months of supply does the Miami condo market have?
In July 2026, Miami-Dade condos carried roughly 12 months of supply, according to MIAMI REALTORS data, compared with about 4.8 months for single-family homes. A balanced market is generally considered to be around five to six months, so condos remain firmly in buyer's-market territory even though active condo listings fell about 11.8% year over year to roughly 11,300.
Are Miami condo prices going down?
Not by much. The Miami-Dade condo median was about $400,000 in July 2026, roughly 1.5% below a year earlier, while condo sales rose about 11% to 1,026. Prices are flat rather than falling, and buyers are winning their leverage through negotiation, concessions, and seller flexibility instead of headline price drops.
Is now a good time to buy a Miami condo?
For prepared buyers, yes. Deep supply gives you room to negotiate, but sales are rising and listings are shrinking, so the window is narrowing. The best approach is to choose a building with healthy reserves, get financing or cash positioned in advance, negotiate credits and terms, and keep enough liquidity to absorb future assessments.
Agu Ukaogo
South Florida Luxury Realtor & Wealth Protection Strategist. FL Real Estate License SL3588365 | Insurance NPN 22138920. One of the few advisors in Miami licensed in both real estate and insurance. HomeWithAgu.com · (305) 791-0812