People keep asking me the same question this summer: "Agu, is the Miami market hot or is it cooling off?" And my honest answer frustrates them a little, because it's both. We don't have one market in South Florida right now. We have two, and they're moving in opposite directions.
On one side you've got single-family homes — houses — running under six months of supply, with prices still grinding upward. On the other side you've got condos sitting at close to thirteen months of supply, with sellers cutting prices and throwing in concessions to get deals done. Same county. Same buyers, in some cases. Completely different game depending on which door you walk through.
I've been telling my clients for months now that the headline number — "the Miami market" — is almost useless if you don't say whether you mean a house or a condo. So let me break down what's actually happening on each side, and how I'd play it depending on what you're trying to buy.
The Numbers Tell Two Different Stories
Here's the snapshot I'm working from as of mid-2026. Single-family inventory in South Florida is sitting around 5 to 6 months of supply. In real estate, anything under six months is generally considered a market that still favors the seller. Condos? They're up near 12 to 13 months of supply — and double-digit months of inventory is a buyer's market by any definition.
| Metric | Single-Family Homes | Condos & Townhomes |
|---|---|---|
| Months of supply | ~5–6 months | ~12–13 months |
| Who has leverage | Sellers (still tight) | Buyers (clear advantage) |
| 2026 price direction | Modest growth (~3%) | Softening / dipping before flattening |
| Your move | Be ready, move fast, expect competition | Negotiate hard, vet the building |
The median Miami home price is hovering in the high $500,000s, basically flat to slightly down year over year — and that "slightly down" is being dragged by the condo side. Houses in the strongest neighborhoods are holding and even gaining. So when a buyer tells me prices are falling, I have to ask: which prices? Because the answer changes the strategy completely.
Single-family South Florida is still a seller's market under 6 months of supply. The condo segment is a buyer's market near 13 months. If you don't know which one you're shopping, you'll either overpay on a house or under-negotiate on a condo.
Why Condos Cooled While Houses Held
This isn't random, and it isn't a sign that Miami is falling apart. It's the predictable result of how the cost of owning a condo here has changed.
After the Surfside tragedy, Florida tightened the rules on older condo buildings — milestone structural inspections and fully funded reserve requirements. Those reforms were necessary, and I support them. But they also mean a lot of associations had to raise dues, pass special assessments, and stop kicking maintenance down the road. When you add rising association budgets on top of insurance and the monthly HOA, the all-in carrying cost of some condos jumped enough to scare off buyers. That fear shows up as inventory sitting on the market.
Houses don't carry that baggage. When you own a single-family home, you control the roof, the windows, the insurance, the maintenance, and the timeline. There's no board voting to assess you $40,000 for a façade repair. In a market where people want control over their costs, that control is worth a premium — and the under-six-months supply on the house side proves buyers are willing to pay it.
How I'd Play the Condo Side Right Now
Let me be clear: a buyer's market in Miami condos is an opportunity, not a warning. I've helped clients negotiate terms this year that would have been laughed out of the room two years ago. But you have to buy intelligently, because not every soft condo is a good deal — some are soft for a reason.
Underwrite the building, not just the unit. Before I let a client fall in love with a view, we pull the association's financials, the reserve study, the inspection status, and the special-assessment history. A gorgeous unit in a building with a thin reserve and a looming assessment is a trap, no matter how good the price looks. A well-run building with healthy reserves and a clean inspection report, on the other hand, is exactly where the negotiating leverage pays off.
Use the leverage you actually have. With a year's worth of supply on the shelf, you can ask for price reductions, closing-cost credits, and time. Sellers who need to move will deal. That's the whole point of a buyer's market — and most buyers still negotiate like it's 2022. Don't.
How I'd Play the Single-Family Side
Houses are the opposite mindset. Here you have to be prepared, decisive, and realistic about competition, because the good ones still move. The mistake I see is buyers bringing condo-market expectations to a house — lowballing, dragging their feet, waiting for a price cut that never comes — and then losing the home to someone who simply showed up ready.
If you want a single-family home in a strong Miami neighborhood, get your financing locked tight before you tour, know your real monthly number including insurance, and be ready to write a clean, serious offer. The supply isn't there to support a leisurely search. That's just the reality of the segment.
Whichever side you're on, run the full monthly number before you commit — principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA if there is one. In Florida, insurance and association costs are not rounding errors, and they're exactly where condo buyers get surprised after closing. I make sure my clients see the true carrying cost before they're emotionally attached.
The Part Most Agents Skip
Here's where I'm built a little differently than the agent down the street. I'm licensed in both real estate and insurance, so when I help you buy — house or condo — we don't stop at the keys. We talk about how the home and your family are actually protected once you own it.
On the condo side, that means understanding what the master policy covers versus what falls on you, and where an HO-6 policy fills the gap. On the house side, it means getting the windstorm and homeowners coverage right for South Florida instead of discovering the hard way at renewal. And on both sides, it means thinking past the closing table to the structures that keep your family secure if life doesn't go according to plan. Buying the home is step one. Protecting it is what turns a purchase into a legacy.
That's the lens I bring to this two-market moment. The split between condos and houses isn't a problem to fear — it's information. It tells you exactly where the leverage is, and if you know how to read it, you can win on either side.
Let's Figure Out Which Side Is Yours
House or condo, seller's market or buyer's — tell me what you're after and I'll show you exactly where the opportunity is, payment and protection included.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy a condo in Miami in 2026?
For the right buyer, yes — but it's a negotiation market, not a grab-it-before-it's-gone market. South Florida condos are sitting at roughly 12 to 13 months of supply, which firmly favors buyers, so there's room to negotiate on price, concessions, and closing costs you won't get on the house side. The catch is you have to underwrite the building — reserves, special assessments, and inspection status — not just the unit. If a building checks out, this is one of the best condo-buying windows I've seen in years.
Why is the Miami condo market softer than single-family homes?
Supply and carrying costs. Single-family inventory is running around 5 to 6 months while condos are near 13, so the segments aren't behaving the same. On top of that, Florida's post-Surfside reforms — milestone inspections and fully funded reserves — pushed some association budgets and special assessments higher, raising the all-in cost of owning a condo. That cooled condo demand even as buyers kept competing hard for houses they can fully control.
Will single-family home prices in Miami keep rising in 2026?
Most forecasts point to modest single-family growth in Southeast Florida — around 3% in 2026 — driven by tight inventory under six months and steady demand from relocating professionals and international buyers. That's not boom-era appreciation, but it's the opposite direction from condos, which are projected to dip before flattening. In my experience, well-located houses in the strongest neighborhoods hold their footing because there simply aren't enough of them.
Agu Ukaogo
South Florida Luxury Realtor & Wealth Protection Strategist. FL Real Estate License SL3588365 | Insurance NPN 22138920. One of the few advisors in Miami licensed in both real estate and insurance. HomeWithAgu.com · (954) 702-4688