I had two clients under contract the same week this summer, both buying two-bedroom condos, both spending almost the same money. One was in West Palm Beach. One was in Aventura.
The West Palm buyer paid within two percent of asking and got nothing but a closing date. The Aventura buyer got a price cut, a credit toward the special assessment, and the seller covering a chunk of closing costs.
Same region. Same month. Same product. Completely different negotiation. That is not luck, and it is not one agent out-hustling another. South Florida is running two separate condo markets right now, and most buyers are shopping as if there's only one.
One County Already Turned. Two Haven't.
Here's what the July 2026 numbers actually say, and I want you to read them side by side rather than as one regional headline.
Median condo and townhome prices in Palm Beach County rose for the fifth consecutive month, up roughly 4% year over year. Condo sales there jumped about 18.5% in July alone and are up 11.3% for the year. In the submarkets, the gains are not subtle — West Palm Beach condo prices up around 12%, Boca Raton and Jupiter posting double-digit moves.
Now look south. Miami-Dade condo prices were down about 1.5%. Broward was down about 3.8%. Miami-Dade condo sales were actually strong — up 11.4% year over year in July — but the volume is coming through on price. Buyers are showing up and buying at a discount, and sellers are taking it.
Both of those things are true at once, and neither one is a crash or a boom. It's a clearing process happening on two different clocks.
Palm Beach County is selling momentum. Miami-Dade and Broward are selling leverage. You are choosing between those two things whether you realize it or not, so choose on purpose.
Why the Split Exists
Three reasons, and they're worth understanding because they tell you how long this lasts.
The building stock is different. Miami-Dade and Broward carry far more of the 1970s and 1980s oceanfront and near-ocean towers, which means far more milestone inspection findings, reserve studies, and assessments that landed on owners all at once. That pressure produced motivated sellers. Palm Beach County has newer inventory in the corridors that are actually moving, so it never absorbed the same shock.
The relocation wave landed on a smaller base. When wealth management and finance operations moved into West Palm Beach and Boca Raton, that demand hit a housing market a fraction of Miami-Dade's size. Corporate migration has been reshaping the luxury tier across the region for two years now, but a few thousand relocating households do very different things to Palm Beach County than they do to Miami.
Supply is tightening region-wide. Active inventory across South Florida is down roughly 17.7% year over year. Single-family inventory is down almost 22% and now sits at about four months of supply in most counties, which is seller territory, full stop. Condo inventory is down about 15% — but Miami-Dade still carries around twelve months of existing condo supply against a balanced market of five or six. That's still real, usable leverage, and it's the last place in South Florida where a buyer has this much room.
That is the honest summary of where we are: the house market is gone and the condo market is going. Not gone. Going.
How I'd Choose Between Them
I don't think one of these markets is "better." I think they answer different questions, and I've stopped letting clients skip the question.
Buy Palm Beach County If…
- You want appreciation to show up in the first 24 months, not year five
- Your job or your firm is landing in the West Palm / Boca corridor
- You'd rather pay near asking than manage a building's document risk
- You're buying newer product and want a cleaner reserve picture
- Resale liquidity matters more to you than entry price
Buy Miami-Dade or Broward If…
- You want the 6–8% condo discount that's still on the table
- You'll trade a longer hold for a materially lower basis
- You can read a reserve study, or you'll hire someone who can
- You want assessment credits negotiated into the deal
- You're buying a specific building, not a general market thesis
The mistake I see most often is a buyer taking Palm Beach's price story and shopping with it in Miami — or worse, taking Miami's discount story and expecting it to work in Boca. I watched a buyer lose a Jupiter unit this year over eleven thousand dollars because he came in with a Broward negotiating posture. Wrong county, wrong month, wrong market.
Sellers in Miami-Dade and Broward are still giving up about six to eight points off list on condos. In the single-family market, that discount is down to four or five, and shrinking. The turnaround is underway, and it is not going to announce itself before it finishes.
The Part I Care About More Than the Discount
Now the piece where my real estate license and my insurance license stop being two different jobs.
Everything above is about entry price. But the condo owners who got hurt over the last three years did not get hurt on purchase price. They got hurt by an assessment they hadn't reserved for, on a fixed budget, in a building where the money had to come from somewhere. A great price on a unit you can't carry is not a great deal — it's a slower version of the same problem.
So whichever county you land in, I want the same three things in place before you close. Six to twelve months of full carrying costs liquid, with dues and a realistic assessment reserve counted in — not just the mortgage payment. A protection layer bought while you're healthy and employed, because coverage is not something you get to purchase on the day you need it. And a clear-eyed read of the building's reserve study before you fall in love with the balcony.
I don't say that from a script. When I lost my mother in 2012, shortly after I'd moved to Los Angeles to rebuild my life from scratch, I learned what happens to a family when the plan was started but never finished. Nobody in that room was thinking about price per square foot.
That's the whole philosophy, and it hasn't changed in ten years: buy the home, protect the family, build the legacy. South Florida is handing you two different opportunities right now. Pick the one that matches what you actually need — then make sure you can hold it.
Let's Figure Out Which County Is Yours
Tell me your budget, your timeline, and whether you need appreciation or leverage. I'll show you the specific buildings that fit — and the ones I'd walk away from on documents alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Palm Beach County condo prices rising while Miami condo prices are falling?
Because the two counties are working through different inventory cycles. Palm Beach County median condo and townhome prices have risen year over year for five consecutive months, up about 4% as of July 2026, while Miami-Dade was down roughly 1.5% and Broward down about 3.8% over the same period. Palm Beach also had far less of the 1970s and 1980s oceanfront condo stock that carries the heaviest structural reserve and milestone inspection burden, and it absorbed a wave of finance and wealth management relocation into West Palm Beach and Boca Raton that landed on a much smaller housing base. Miami-Dade and Broward are still clearing a larger backlog, which is why buyers there keep the negotiating room.
Should I buy a condo in Palm Beach County or Miami-Dade right now?
It depends on which side of the trade you want. Palm Beach County gives you a market that has already turned, with condo and townhome sales up about 18.5% year over year in July 2026 and prices firming in submarkets like West Palm Beach, Boca Raton and Jupiter. You pay closer to asking, and you buy into momentum. Miami-Dade gives you leverage instead of momentum: roughly 12 months of existing condo supply against a balanced market of five or six, and condo price discounts running about 6% to 8% off list. If you need appreciation to show up early, look north. If you want to negotiate price, credits and assessment terms today, Miami-Dade and Broward are where that room still exists.
Is the South Florida buyer's market ending?
It is narrowing, not over, and it is closing unevenly. Active inventory across South Florida was down about 17.7% year over year as of July 2026, with single-family inventory down 21.8% and condo and townhome inventory down 15.1%. Single-family months of supply now sits near four months in most counties, which is seller territory. Condos are a different story: Miami-Dade still carries roughly 12 months of supply, and seller discounts on condos remain wider than on houses. So the single-family window has largely closed while the condo window is still open — narrower than it was, but open.
Agu Ukaogo
South Florida Luxury Realtor & Wealth Protection Strategist. FL Real Estate License: SL3588365. Bridges real estate transactions with life insurance and wealth protection that keeps homes in families. HomeWithAgu.com · (305) 791-0812