A buyer asked me last week, "Agu, the news says Miami just set a record. Did I miss the window?" I told him what I'll tell you: two things can be true at once. The top of this market is on fire, and the condo market under it is still handing buyers real leverage.
The numbers that came out October 16 from MIAMI REALTORS make the split plain. Let me walk you through how I read them.
The Record Everyone Is Talking About
Through September, Miami-Dade logged 24 single-family and condo sales of $30 million or more. That beats the full-year 2025 record of 21 and puts the county on pace for about 32. The association's chairman called South Florida ultra-luxury "booming," and he's right. I covered the trend in my take on the ultra-luxury boom, and the same wealth migration that drives it is behind the corporate relocations reshaping luxury demand.
But twenty-four sales is twenty-four sales. Unless you're shopping at $30 million, that headline isn't your market.
Your Market: 12.3 Months of Condo Supply
Miami-Dade condos carried 12.3 months of supply in September. Single-family homes carried 5.1. Same county, two completely different negotiations.
Here is what the September condo data tells me:
| Miami-Dade Condos, Sept. 2026 | Reading |
|---|---|
| Months of supply | 12.3 (buyer's market) |
| Median price | $417,090, down 0.69% year over year |
| Share of original list price received | 94% |
| Days from listing to contract | 67 (down from 75) |
| Cash share of condo sales | 49.4% |
| Active condo listings | 11,706, down 7.24% |
Read that 94% again. The typical condo is closing about six points under where it first listed. That is negotiating room, and it exists today. I broke down how to use it in my Miami condo buyer's-market playbook.
Why the Window Is Narrowing
Condo listings have now fallen eight months in a row. Sales near the median price point are moving, too: condos priced between $300K and $400K rose 14.5% year over year. Buyers are coming back, and sellers are pulling listings rather than chasing the market down. That's the same pattern behind the South Florida condo market turnaround, and it's why I wrote about what buyers do while inventory shrinks.
Twelve months of supply doesn't vanish overnight. But the direction matters. Leverage is strongest when sellers are tired and buyers are scarce. We're moving away from that, slowly.
The Rate Problem
The same release notes mortgage rates have climbed nearly 0.6 points since September 1, to 7.46% as of October 13. The association's chief economist pointed to the negative impact of soaring rates on buyers. I see it in my own calls: people who were comfortable at 6.8% are rerunning every number.
This is where I get tough, because I've watched people lose sleep over it. Don't wait on a rate drop to save you. A rate is something you can refinance later. A price you overpaid is not. What you can do now is negotiate seller credits and rate buydowns, which I explained in my guide to buydowns and concessions. With 12.3 months of supply, sellers are listening.
Cash Is Half the Room
Nearly half of Miami-Dade condo sales, 49.4%, were all cash. If you're financing, you're competing with people who can close without a lender. So make your offer clean: strong pre-approval, a realistic timeline, and a building that will actually pass lender review. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eliminated the limited review option for many condo loans on August 3, and only 21 of 2,397 condo buildings across the three counties are FHA-approved. Choose the building before you fall in love with the unit. My cash vs. financing guide covers the trade-offs.
How I Tell Buyers to Play It
- Shop the $300K to $600K condo band hard. That is where supply is deep and the discount to list is real.
- Look at days on market. A unit at 90 days or more has a tired seller. Open below list and ask for credits.
- Vet reserves and dues first. A cheap unit in an underfunded building is a future assessment.
- Keep your liquidity. Don't put every dollar into the down payment. Insurance, assessments, and a rate surprise all hit the same account.
- Buy for the long hold. Miami condo prices have stayed flat or risen in 166 of the last 184 months. I buy like a long-term owner, not a trader.
Buy the Home. Protect the Family. Build the Legacy.
When I lost my mother in 2012, I learned that the things you put off because the timing feels perfect never arrive on schedule. A home bought with a clear head, protected properly, and held for years is how families build something that outlasts a news cycle.
Everything I do comes from love, even the tough love. So here's the tough love: stop reading the record headlines like they're about you, and start reading the condo numbers that are. If you're ready to make the move, I'm ready to help you do it right. Call me at (305) 791-0812 or visit HomeWithAgu.com. Let's build something real.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many months of supply do Miami condos have?
Per MIAMI REALTORS data released October 16, 2026, Miami-Dade condos carried 12.3 months of supply in September, which is a buyer's market, while single-family homes sat at 5.1 months, a seller's market. Condo inventory has now fallen eight months in a row, so the window is narrowing but still open.
Is the Miami condo market a buyer's market right now?
For most condos, yes. Condos sold at a median 94% of original list price and took about 67 days to go under contract in September 2026. Prime waterfront and new-construction units are the exception, so leverage depends on the building and the price band.
Should I pay cash or finance a Miami condo with rates near 7.5%?
About 49% of Miami-Dade condo sales were cash in September 2026, so cash buyers compete with financed offers constantly. If you finance, ask for seller credits or a rate buydown and keep liquidity for assessments and insurance rather than draining it into the down payment.
Agu Ukaogo
South Florida Luxury Realtor & Wealth Protection Strategist. FL Real Estate License SL3588365 | Insurance NPN 22138920. One of the few advisors in Miami licensed in both real estate and insurance. HomeWithAgu.com · (305) 791-0812