Here is the number I keep coming back to this week: 60 percent. According to the latest MIAMI REALTORS market report, six in ten million-dollar transactions in South Florida are all cash, compared with about 42 percent of the market overall. If you are shopping at the top end and you need a mortgage, you are not competing with the neighbor down the hall. You are competing with a buyer who can close in two weeks and never calls an appraiser.
I have sat across from those buyers. A cash offer is not just money, it is certainty, and sellers pay for certainty. So today I want to show you how I think about this, whether you are the cash buyer, the financed buyer, or the person deciding which segment of this market even makes sense for you.
The September 2026 Snapshot
Million-dollar single-family sales, year to date: up 23.3% (vs. 7.5% overall) | Million-dollar condo/townhome sales: up 17.6% (vs. 5.2% overall) | All-cash share, $1M+ deals: 60% vs. 42% overall | Out-of-state job movers' average income: about $140,000 vs. $61,088 for in-state movers | Rate outlook: around 7% by end of 2026, easing toward 6.5% in 2027
Why the Top of the Market Barely Feels the Rate Pain
Rates are expected to hover around 7 percent by year-end, and yet luxury sales are running far ahead of the overall market. That is not a mystery once you see who is buying. Migration from high-tax states is picking back up, and the people moving are earning more than double what in-state movers earn. Many of them are selling an appreciated home in New York, New Jersey, California, or Illinois, then walking into Miami with equity in hand. They are not rate-sensitive because they are not borrowing much, if anything.
That is the same force I wrote about when companies started moving headquarters here. Executives follow the office, the office brings the talent, and the talent brings cash. The corporate relocation wave driving South Florida luxury demand is not slowing down, and this data says it is showing up in closed sales.
If You're Financing at the High End, Here's How I Compete
Do not walk in hoping the seller loves you. Walk in making yourself the safest non-cash offer on the table. Here is what I coach my financed clients to do:
- Get fully underwritten before you offer. A pre-approval letter is a suggestion. An underwriting approval is close to cash in the seller's mind.
- Tighten the timeline. Offer a shorter financing and appraisal window. Every extra week is risk the seller has to price in.
- Bring real earnest money. Strong deposits tell a seller you are serious and reduce their fear of a walk-away.
- Keep the contract clean. Fewer contingencies, clear terms, no drama. Cash buyers win on simplicity, so match it where you can.
And know your walk-away number. I have watched buyers overpay because a cash competitor rattled them. Cash sets the pace, it does not set your price.
If You're the Cash Buyer, Don't Waste the Advantage
Paying cash gets you leverage, but it also drains liquidity, and I see people forget that until after closing. Before you wire, I want you to think about reserves for insurance, taxes, HOA dues, and special assessments, plus an emergency cushion that has nothing to do with the property. I go deeper on this in my breakdown of paying cash versus financing while protecting your liquidity. Buying the home is step one. Making sure one bad year does not force you to sell it is what protects the family.
The Real Opportunity Sits Below the Cash Line
Here is what the headlines miss. The cash-heavy, million-dollar tier is one market. Condos and mainstream resale are another. The same report points to Broward County and Port St. Lucie as home to the largest inventories of properties under about $462,000, and I see the same story in my condo work: more supply, longer days on market, and sellers who will talk about price and credits. If you need a mortgage, you do not have to out-muscle a cash buyer in a scarce luxury lane. You can go where the supply is and negotiate from strength. I lay out the playbook in how Miami condo buyers can use their leverage, and the bigger picture in the South Florida condo market turnaround.
Cash sets the pace at the top. Leverage lives where the inventory is. Know which game you're in before you write the offer.
For the ultra-high end, I also covered the record pace in Miami's $10M+ sales and the buyer leverage below them. Same market, two very different playbooks.
What I'd Do This Week
If you are moving from a high-tax state, get your financing and your funds organized before you fly down, not after you fall in love with a listing. If you are a local buyer feeling shut out by cash, shift your search to the segment with supply. And whatever you do, protect the downside. The right coverage on the property and the right protection on your income and your family is what turns a big purchase into a legacy instead of a risk.
Buy the home. Protect the family. Build the legacy. If you are ready to make the move, I'm ready to help you do it right. Call me at (786) 417-1897 or visit HomeWithAgu.com. Let's build something real.
Market figures from the MIAMI REALTORS September 2026 South Florida housing market report.
